Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Nautilus]

JRPGfan said:

Nautilus said:

The 0,001% was just an example of how low these numbers are compared to any other disease and problem the world have, as the numbers I gave you showed.I'm not trying to justify anything.I don't have to.We nevber had lockdown for any of these disease that are arguably far more deadly and serious, and humanity is just fine.I don't need to downplay the lockdown, reality is doing that for me.

Plus, the lockdown is far more efficicent than you think.Why do you think that the numbers keep rising even when most countries have this lockdown in effect?Simple: Most people were already infected way before the lockdown was placed in effect.So in this situation you have one family member infected placed at all times close to the other family members that are not infected.Remember, this virus has a 2 week long incubation.For this lockdown to truly have an effect, it should have been put into effect in January or early February, not mid march.But that's just me.

Right now its "only" a small issue that killed ~160,000-200,000 people.
The issue is, right now theres maybe only been like ~23million cases of infections (2,3m x 10).

Imagine what happends if say this is allowed to spread and hit those 50-60% infections of the world populations.

If 23million = ~160k deaths..... how badly would the world be off, if like 1/2 on the planet got this?

Also 160,000 deaths out of ~23million cases = 0.7%.

7,8+ billion people x half the world infected x 0.7% = 28 million deaths (world wide)

Thats assumeing that mortality rates dont rise, if spread gets that bad.
They would likely double atleast, imo.

This is why there are lockdowns/shutdowns.
World leaders dont want this virus to kill like 56 million people.

"Plus, the lockdown is far more efficicent than you think.Why do you think that the numbers keep rising even when most countries have this lockdown in effect?" - Nautilus

Because people are "bad" at avoiding getting it, or spreading it to others.
People still go outsides to do things, even in a lockdown, you cant get around stepping out to get food and stuff.
Theres still "essential workers", so a lockdown is never going to 100% stop spread.

If you actually did manage to lock every person inside their house/building, then within 3-4 weeks this virus could be defeated.
It only lives inside the human body (it cannot survive outsides more than a few days).

The problem is we dont live in a perfect world, where its possible for no one to ever leave their house, for that long.

I will stand by what I said that most people were already infected before the lockdown was in effect, so that estimation of yours, in this cenario, would be null, because we would already be in the "worst case scenario", but alas...

If people is really getting infected because they are not respecting the lockdown, then the lockdown itself is flawed.What I mean is, you can plan the best plan in the world, but it will serve you nothing if people don't stick to the plan.If the lockdown is not being respected, it means that you haven't concocted a plan that adapts to the culture and behaviour of the place that the lockdown will affect.And the only good said lockdown is doing is destroying the economy.At least based on what you said.