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Trumpstyle said:
I'm not familiar with Japan situation, but here in sweden our strategy looks to be to just slow the spread of the virus and not to stop the spread virus as other countries are trying to do. It would be interesting if Japan did the same. As we already let the virus spread the hard part for us will be this month which is almost over and next month, then it should be easy.
Thank u for reading my post. He was talking about Stockholm not sweden as the whole country. Stockholm will achieve herd immunity in May and rest of sweden at a later date (before a vaccine is out). As for how many are effected I don't know, we did a random sample test with around 700 people in stockholm a while back and we determined 5-10% was infected in Stockholm. We don't do much testing so we ofc won't have many confirmed cases, but note he said 50% is enough to achieve herd immunity, u can see that in my post. |
Then lets look at Stockholm numbers, as a exsample:
When other countries talk about "dark numbers" (infection you dont know about) its usually by around a factor of 10 or so.
In stockholm sweden claims it has ~5400 confirmed cases of coronavirus (out of the 13,000+).
This is a area with a population of 975,000+.
If ~10% of your population there, really had the virus, the confirmed cases numbers would be much much higher than just the ~5400 reported now.
5%-10% of 975k = ~49,000 to ~97,500 infected.
Going by the factor of 10, rule, Stockhold might actually have around 5% there infected with the virus.
That still means infection needs to spread atleast 10 times as much as it currently has (more other places in sweden).
Stockholm has like 820 deaths to coronavirus (probably slightly higher, since no country has 100% right numbers).
Stockholm has ~440 in the ICU, and probably half of these people will die to it.
Lets say thats the "base" rate now, around 1000 deaths.
To reach 50% infected numbers, that means your 5% rate -> 50% which is a factor of 10.
Those 1000 deaths -> 10,000 deaths in stockholm before 50% rate is hit.
Stockholm is around 1/10th of sweden (975k out of 10,3m).
If the same numbers play out in the rest of sweden (and why wouldnt it, if your allowing herd immunity to reach 50%+).
10,000 x 10 = 100,000+ deaths.
Also with 50% herd immunity your only "half" safe.
Thats when infection start to drop.
This means deaths will keep on going up, for abit even after 50% rate is reached.
Sweden is basically allowing 100k+ people to die, by chooseing this methode, that it might have saved the vast majority off.
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