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SvennoJ on 17 April 2020
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haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:

I calculated the Imperial college estimates through before based on the demographics in the US and India.

In the US the death toll could be 2.2 million if left unchecked out of 328 million population.
In India the death toll could be 2.0 million if left unchecked out of 1.35 billion population.

Actually less people would die in India than the US due to the huge difference in age demographics.

And true, if nobody is around to test and count the dead, we won't know.

(Those are lower estimates btw if 'only' 40% of the population gets infected and no extra deaths due to hospital shortage)

What are you basing these estimates on? The ICL had an initial report with an estimated death toll of 2.2 million people for the US (Report 9), but with 81% of the population infected. That particular study also used an IFR estimate of 0.9%, before it was revised to 0.66% for later studies (as published in The Lancet late in March). Even extrapolating from their estimates and assuming all age groups get evenly infected, and then manually calculating, I'm getting ~ 1.2 million deaths for the US with 40% of the population infected.

Of course, that leaves us with the effects of hospital shortages, but even then, with 84% of people put in ventilators dying regardless in a lot of places... it would seem patient triages wouldn't significantly increase the death rate overall. As depressing and cruel as that thought might be.

Ah I see, I calculated the USA for 70% infected, India for 40%, nvm my numbers are off. Total death count in India would be higher regardless.

I used page 5 of this, report 9 yep.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-16-COVID19-Report-9.pdf