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SvennoJ on 16 April 2020
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JRPGfan said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

"Weekly jobless claims totaled 5.245 million, the Labor Department reported."
"That brings the crisis total to just over 22 million"

This virus caused 22million people to lose their jobs in the US.

That seems like a insanely large number (to me, I live in a small country ok!?)

I hope we only get 1 wave of this outbreak (it would be too frekkin depressing if we actually get another wave of it).
Like in denmark, we got the R0 = under 0.6, which should mean that each person that gets infected only transmits it to on avg ~0.6 others.
Give it enough time, maybe it goes away entirely.

The issue is our Prime Minster is starting to open up things gradually again.
When its likely too soon to be doing so. I think it likely we see a another infection spike due to this (here).

The last 7 day comparison between 3 day averages for the reported cases in Denmark indeed comes to an R0 of 0.59
That assumes that test results have already stabilized from the Easter dip though.
Making the comparison for today (assuming it won't go further up than the 198 cases reported today) the R0 would be 0.67

It's going down anyway. The key point is, will they be able to detect, trace and contain future cases fast enough. 200 new cases a day are still a lot to track down the chain of infection or you will miss more with mild symptoms that will increase the spread again.

It doesn't seem to want to go away entirely, China is still reporting new cases, so is South Korea. Yet with early detection and efficient tracing it should be safe to start opening things up again.

By the same math, the R0 for the world yesterday (based on a 7 day period) was 0.96. Influenced by the Easter dip and still many missed cases.
USA current R0 = 0.91
Europe current R0 = 0.92
Canada current R0 = 1.01, crap we're increasing again.

That's all 7 day averages with weekends, Easter, changing amounts of tests and test criteria influencing results.
The USA is fixing death counts atm so there the R0 based on reported deaths currently is 1.17

However the base R0 for the virus is 2.2, we're well under that which ever way you look at the data. For comparison, Russia's R0 currently is at 2.07