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JRPGfan on 12 April 2020
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SvennoJ said:
Jesus is having an effect, numbers in a lot of countries are taking a dive for Good Friday, resulting in much lower Saturday numbers. The effect might last all weekend including Easter Monday. Both reported cases and reported deaths are down in a lot of places. Not that the virus takes a break of course, but the people testing and reporting can desperately use a break.

Europe has been working through a lot of corrections from France, UK, Ireland, Belgium, all changing/updating reported cases and deaths. it's starting to stabilize again and (now without Turkey) is back to an avg 36K new cases per day, before Easter will artificially take it down. The USA is also seeing the Easter effect but to a lesser extent so far or perhaps there was more growth left to discover. The USA was averaging 33K new cases per day at the end of the week.

Europe has been sort of stable for 2 weeks currently, the USA for about a week, what's interesting is that the percentage of reported deaths vs reported cases is very different:
Europe: 11.4%
USA: 5.9%
World: 7.8%
Either the USA is testing twice as much as Europe, or the USA is under reporting deaths, or the virus is half as deadly in the USA. I doubt the last part. The strain going around in the USA is slightly different from the one in Europe but the experts say this has no effect on the virus, it's only a few base pairs, just enough to identify the mutation.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
Europe has been adding nursing home deaths (not everywhere though) while the USA afaik still only counts identified covid19 deaths in hospitals.

The differences in Europe are big as well:
Spain: 12.4% reported cases are going down sooner than deaths, 8.5% compared to peak reported cases
Italy: 14% reported cases are going down sooner than deaths, 10% compared to the peak reported cases
France: 18% adding nursing home deaths
Germany: 4.3%

Not a lot of consistency between countries' reporting methods.

+

JRPGfan said:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/scores-of-probable-coronavirus-deaths-are-not-being-counted-by-the-city/

“Out of the 12 [cardiac cases], I did on Sunday 10 had COVID symptoms. Flu-like symptoms, cough, etc. Nobody made it back. That’s going on all over the city,” said Anthony Almojera, vice president of FDNY, EMS union local 3621.

“There’s gotta be 200 a day… obviously are not all COVID, but they aren’t being tested,” he said.

The FDNY confirmed that paramedics are seeing more than 300 calls for cardiac arrest with “well over” 200 people dying each day. Typically paramedics would deal with around two dozen deaths on around 54 to 74 cardiac arrest calls.

So normally theres ~50-75 calls for cardiac arrests, calls each day. Out of these ~24 or so die.
Now they have 300+ calls each day, and over 200 pr day dieing? and its not noted as due to Coronavirus.

"New York City’s death toll — which surged past 3,000 on Tuesday — only includes the number of confirmed cases. The city does not test people for the disease after they’ve died — even if they end up in the Medical Examiner’s Office after fighting coronavirus-like symptoms."

Number of deaths due to this thing is being under reported by alot.

FDNY (fire deparement new york)

Usually they see ~24 people die to heart attacks, everyday.
Now its "well over" 200 each day.

"not noted down as due to coronavirus"  (dispite majority had symptoms of such)


Also again.... this virus doesnt kill everyone it infects instantly.
You lose a slow drawn out fight to it, over a few weeks.

Outbreak spiked earlier on in europe than it did in the US.
So give it a week or two, you'll likely see matching US numbers.

Unless the effects of those medicine cocktails the president has been mentioning are being used and proven to work.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 12 April 2020