| LurkerJ said: Still, Dr. Cody says a surge in cases is coming, and that since a vaccine is still a long ways off, at some point everyone is likely to be infected. "Yes, probably at some point," Dr. Cody replied when asked if she believes everyone will be infected. "What our shelter-in-place order does, though, is slow things down, so we spread the cases out over a long period of time, and so that we spread the number of people who are severely ill and require hospitalization over a long period of time as well." Dr. Cody declined to give a timeline for when she anticipates life returning to normal, saying this is the "new normal" for the foreseeable future. She stopped short of saying school won't return in the Fall. https://abc7news.com/coronavirus-dr-cody-santa-clara-county-bay-area-flatten-curve-testing/6081905/ |
So that would merely be preventing extra deaths due to ICU shortage, halving the number of deaths. Still a noble goal, but to put life on halt for years for such a slim reduction.
Suppose Italy could 'handle' 10K infections a day, and 100 deaths a day. That's 6,000 days for the virus to go all the way around Italy, and 600,000 deaths.
Now suppose those 10K are still disguising 8 times as many asymptomatic cases, thus 80K a day (actual death rate of 0.125%) and at 70% of the population herd immunity will stop it. That's still 1.5 years while somehow perfectly keeping the spread of the virus constant, and 53K deaths.
Actually the highest detected cases was 6557 in a day, maybe still missing as many as 8x as many asymptomatic cases, while peak deaths was at 919. So about 50K infections and 1.8% fatality rate for the peak. With those peak numbers you would be looking at 812 days and 730,000 deaths to reach herd immunity.
Sorry Dr. Cody, but I don't like your new normal, we need to do better.
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