Average growth update up to and including Friday (using Saturday's numbers)
First grapth is the average growth per day, second graph the average reported deaths.

Thanks to the major corrections France got this week in both total cases and reported deaths, France took the lead in both. France should drop down back to its previous level of growth soon though. The reported cases spike was only one day, however the change in reported deaths has raised the daily updates three days in a row. France looked like it was reaching the growth peak, the corrections have temporarily changed its course but France should return to a level and likely downward slope next week.

Italy continues declining and is now behind France, Spain and Germany in newly reported cases per day and will be sinking below UK reported daily cases levels next. Germany and Spain have peaked as well, however Gemany's average death count is still slowly going up while Spain is slowly starting to coming down.

Except for Denmark all the countries displayed there seem to have peaked, although Sweden could still be a temporary change of direction. Austria has gotten off the lightest, whatever they did worked the best. Austria's daily reported cases are dropping the fastest and their reported deaths are also already coming down.


Europe as a whole is still climbing, thanks to France's corrections and Turkey quickly becoming a major player, just entering the Top 10 now in total cases catching up to the UK, already passed Switzerland. The USA is still growing faster than Europe but fell back a little bit to 8.28 days behind Europe (from 8.20)
Compared to a week ago, the USA went down, from 1.153x to 1.090x and Europe from 1.106 to 1.071. That doesn't seem much but is already a difference in 1585 new cases for the next day at the current growth in Europe, 18.5K difference over a week.



Canada is showing signs of slowing down as well. The top 4 provinces have the majority of the cases. Quebec is in the lead for total cases and current growth with 6997 total cases. Ontario is second with 3630 total cases, yet has a higher death count so far. Ontario is still behind detecting cases, so the current slight decline in growth can not be seen as reaching the peak yet. Measures here have been sharpened again with another provincial alert to stay at home.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-outdoor-physical-distancing-1.5518998
In Toronto's bid to stop the spread of COVID-19, city officials announced a new bylaw Thursday that prohibits people from standing within two metres of each other in some parts of the city — and failing to comply could mean a fine of up to $5,000.

Ontario predicts 3000 to 15000 fatalities and being stuck with this virus for a year to 18 months :/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-projections-1.5519575

Provincial health experts say they expect COVID-19 could kill 3,000 to 15,000 people in Ontario over the course of the coronavirus pandemic, the ramifications of which could last up to two years.

He did not suggest current restrictions will be in place for that period of time, but later added "we are some way off" from lifting physical distancing policies, especially in densely populated areas like the GTA.

Decisions to ease physical distancing measures will need to be driven by "complicated modelling and science," he said, and done in a "thoughtful" way.


British Columbia follows with 1203 total cases and has already started to decline. Alberta is in 4th with 1181 total cases, is slowing a bet but will probably pass British Columbia soon. In daily growth Alberta is currently double that of British Columbia. However the numbers are still small, +46 a day for BC, +103 a day for Alberta.



Ontario has its homework done at least and is now carefully fine tuning counter measures

ICU capacity needs to be increased by 900 (from 410), seems very doable. And so far 4,400 deaths have already been prevented. (by April 30th)

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 05 April 2020