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JRPGfan on 02 April 2020
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SvennoJ said:

999,989 cases worldwide atm. This morning Eurogamer still said
According to the World Health Organisation, the number of infections globally will reach a million within days
It's probably a million by the time I hit post.

Oh I went down, they're correcting some numbers I guess. Won't matter, it will be over the 1 mil today.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1aoULlMpn0

Data models from intel collected of 11 european nations, suggest possible 1.88% to 11,43% of the population (of those 11 countries)
has been infected.

Thats why he calls it "good news", this might mean the CFR is between 0,2 - 1,16% (bound to rise with time though)
(death always lags many weeks behinde).

btw, 11,43% of those 11 countries = ~6,858,000 people infected.  (most posible)

The "confirmed cases" of these 11 countries is around 448k.

Everywhere else in the world, its probably about the same.

1,88% of population (1,128,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 2,52  more people actually infected than confirmed cases.
11,42% of population (6,858,000 people), with 448k confirmed cases = theres 15,3 more people actually infected than confirmed cases.

Its probably somewhere in the middle, of the two.

Apply same thinking the US:
235k confirmed cases =  between 592k to 3596k in the USA are infected.

(its just most are without symptoms yet, or asymptomatic)


I think its "relatively safe" to assume, that any confirmed case amount we have, theres probably like x10 times as many out there.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 02 April 2020