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| NightlyPoe said: We might be looking at a positive trend in the United States. We just passed the 4th consecutive day where the United States has been between 17,000-19,500. Yesterday was down for the first time since testing ramped up. This corresponds well with a 2-week lag between when Americans began to take the threat seriously around the weekend of March 13-15. Regardless, if we've already reached the phase where we're experiencing arithmetic growth instead of exponential growth, that would be fantastic. There was also an unexpected drop in deaths by almost half to the levels we saw before a large spike on Friday/Saturday, but it's too early to tell if that's statistical noise. Logically, the death rate should be a bit of a lagging indicator, so I am dubious for now that this will become a trend. Though, perhaps Saturday's spike was an outlier in and of itself. Which is good, because yesterday I was fearing that New York's healthcare system was about to buckle. But with the increased capacity coming online starting tomorrow, matters are a lot more hopeful that they'll be able to ride it out without massive healthcare compromises that we'd feared. |
It wouldn't trust any trends over the weekend. The exact same thing happens through most of the data every 7 days... Reporting is likely a bit slower in the weekend, everything dropped a bit. Although the USA did have that spike last week in the weekend.
Looking at the past 5 days, USA is keeping pace with Europe pretty well.
March 25: 8.22 days behind
March 26: 8.38 days behind
March 27: 8.27 days behind
March 28: 8.29 days behind
March 29: 8.43 days behind
Meaning in 8.43 days, on April 6th, the USA will likely be where Europe is now, which is 391K cases.
Ontario did manage to catch up a bit on tests, now 'only' 7.2K tests pending, but that also netted the biggest gain yet, +211 to 1355 in the province. Quebec still leads in Canada with 2840 cases.
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