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SvennoJ on 29 March 2020
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John2290 said:

What am I missing in this, The Imperial college already said we were past the perfectly flattened curve of 15 million deaths world wide, I specifically remember them being cited as saying such in an article from the Washington post. What has changed in this data since a fortnight ago or what am I not seeing? Are they saying we have a chance to get away with just 1 to 10 million deaths if everything went rosey to slightly less rosey? And what happens when the other 5 billion get infected...

These are all projections based on different strategies. They took all the current available data and observations to make these predictions, but the predictions do not take into account what has already happened / is going on currently. All the simulations are from a clean slate and not adjusted for actually running out of hospital beds. So it's more like best case scenarios out of different strategies.

For example Italy started with suppression way past the optimal, at 0.54 deaths / 100.000, while their lower estimate starts at 0.2 deaths / 100.000 to trigger suppression. But on the other hand, some countries started with (partial) suppression before reaching 0.2 deaths / 100.000.

It is not a projection what is going to happen, but what can happen when following different strategies. The problem is, it's better to be early than too late. The peaks rise drastically when you wait.

Anyway I'm not familiar with an article from the Washington post citing we're already past the hope for less than 15 million deaths?


And yep good question, what after the suppression phase. (What other 5 billion do you mean?) They haven't got that far yet :/

Moreover, for countries lacking the infrastructure capable of implementing technology-led suppression maintenance strategies such as those currently being pursued in Asia, and in the absence of a vaccine or other effective therapy (as well as the possibility of resurgence), careful thought will need to be given to pursuing such strategies in order to avoid a high risk of future health system failure once suppression measures are lifted.

Basically, if we can't maintain the same maintenance strategies as China and South Korea, we could be in for another ride after the initial wave has passed.