Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[SvennoJ]

I gave this a good read, it's the most comprehensive study yet
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

They are comparing the impact on different countries from low income on the left, high income on the right, with different strategies


For reference the number of ICU beds available in different countries ranges from 1.63% of 1.24 hospital beds per 1,000 = 7.8 ICU beds per 100,000 in low income countries to 3.57% of 4.82 hospital beds per 1,000 = 17.2 ICU beds per 100,000 in high income countries.

The bottom row represents mitigation or flattening the curve. Low income countries need less ICU beds since the average age is lower. However they also have less ICU beds per 100,000 available and for any mitigation strategy the healthcare system won't be able to cope in any way.

The top row is suppression based on when measures are put in place. The metric used is how many people died / 100,000 in the week prior to suppression. For example Italy locked down on March 9th, from March 2nd to March 9th, Italy recorded 325 deaths = 0.54 / 100,000, somewhere between the blue line and the one below in figure D.

The earlier you start suppression, the much smaller the initial peak.


These are their current estimates:


(Trump got his facts from here citing 2.2 million for the USA "Our estimated impact of an unmitigated scenario in the UK and the USA for a reproduction number, R0, of 2.4 (490,000 deaths and 2,180,000 deaths respectively)")

Note that these numbers are based on sufficient ICU beds being available. The impact will be higher when health care systems can't shoulder the burden. And even with early suppression, the estimated death toll far exceeds that of the flu.

Do your part on physical distancing!



One big disclaimer

It is important to note that we do not quantify the wider societal and economic impact of such intensive suppression approaches; these are likely to be substantial. Nor do we quantify the potentially different societal and economic impact of mitigation strategies.

Moreover, for countries lacking the infrastructure capable of implementing technology-led suppression maintenance strategies such as those currently being pursued in Asia, and in the absence of a vaccine or other effective therapy (as well as the possibility of resurgence), careful thought will need to be given to pursuing such strategies in order to avoid a high risk of future health system failure once suppression measures are lifted.

Left for later studies no doubt.



Btw many countries already started with measures before reaching the 0.2 deaths per 100,000 per week. For example Canada is at 0.1 currently and has been ramping up suppression for a while. Of course it also depends where it spreads first (young or old) and whether all deaths are correctly assigned to covid19. There is a spreadsheet linked in that pdf with more detailed per country information but I can't open it for some reason.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 29 March 2020