RolStoppable said: Prediction time!Easter Monday seems to be a rather common deadline for the currently imposed measures in various countries. We can expect that no country this deadline applies to will change their plan prematurely. However...The biggest threat of the coronavirus has been that not much is known about it and the fears and concerns are driven by the events in China early this year. Politicians have a pecking order, such as employment trumps protection of the environment. In the case of corona, we are looking at saving lives having higher priority than employment, especially because corona comes with unpredictability due to the lack of knowledge, including efficient medical treatment and cure. No politician and no governing political party wants to be blamed for letting masses of people die, hence why saving lives is chosen over securing employment.The current measures are putting a huge strain on economies while the support programs of governments have only limited money to distribute. Said money sums may sound huge, but they'll be quickly used up. A popular way to lead a country among politicians is to align with the mood and perception of the majority of the people. One good example of this is the refugee crisis of 2015 in Europe where empathy and solidarity levels were high among Europeans until a tipping point was reached eventually and consequently a drastic shift in politics occured. Corona won't be different. People will become fed up with the limitations for their social life as well as financial woes in many cases. Voices will become louder to change the approach to letting the risk groups stay at home where they are safe while the rest of population can get back to work and get the economy back in gear again.That's why I predict that the current measures won't be extended beyond Easter Monday, because I expect the tipping point to be reached within the next two weeks.Until now politicians have listened to experts who work in the medical fields, but soon economists' voices won't be ignored any longer, because the current measures put more people in danger (of the financial sort) than the virus does. The numbers of infections and deaths will get more questioned with each passing day. An example of this is that a country like Italy counts every death as a corona death if a patient was infected by corona whether it was the only, primary or negligible cause of death. Stats will be brought up concerning the common flu and how that costs thousands of lives each year too (unsurprisingly, among the elderly and people who suffer from diseases), it's just that people aren't aware of it because it is considered normal and not newsworthy. The general population will be informed that ~95% of corona infections have either none, mild or only moderate symptoms and people recover within a week or two.That's when more and more people will question why we are doing quarantine for everyone. The chances are high that an infection won't be a problem for most individuals, so countries should begin to return to normal life. And politicians will follow through on that because unsurprisingly they want to get re-elected.We have the current restrictions because the healthcare capacities are insufficient to handle a large outbreak. It's about keeping control over a situation with a lot of uncertainties, so there's sense to the measures. However, it's economically not feasible to issue an extension beyond the current deadline, so employment will soon take priority over saving lives because the wealth of entire countries is at stake. Fortunately, China is ahead of the curve and serves as a good case study, so that's another good argument to end the quarantine once the current deadline has been reached.And yes, researchers are saying that corona will be around for years. But more and more people will have attained immunity over time and treatment for the illness will also have improved. The way some reports are handled, you could be inclined to think that this is a crisis that will go on for a very long time, but after Easter Monday we'll go back to normality step by step. Being allowed to travel to foreign countries will be among the final steps, but most things should be up and running by the end of April with almost everything else following during the month of May.
Where do you get that idea from Rol?
(btw F this site and it's editing nonsense)
| JRPGfan said: this scares me abit:
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| LurkerJ said: Hate these "number of cases" counters when most people get mild symptoms and most of us don't get tested. Not even NHS staff are being tested at the moment. The confirmed number of cases don't reflect real numbers and it's utterly meaningless to even report on. What's the effing point? Happy camping though, introverts are loving life these days |
Hence it's better to look at growth patterns. There's one constant, 1.16x average growth, reported above likely means catching up on missed cases, reported below without containment measures in place, you're likely missing a lot of cases. But when the reported growth flattens out for several days in a row it's more safe to assume that measures are working and the actual growth is reversing while new reported cases will consist more of mild cases instead of just confirming the bad ones.
