jason1637 said: |
Sigh, yep the death toll numbers aren't reliable either. Some countries will put it on covid19 if it was only suspected in pneumonia cases. Some will test and blame it on covid19 if traces of the virus are found regardless if it was responsible for the death. Some will more readily put it on underlying conditions and only see covid19 as a complication, not the reason for death. And some won't test at all.
Sadly Italy is not going down much yet, but at least it has reached a plateau.
Calculating backwards from an average daily deceased count of 713 on March 25th:
Assuming an average fatality ratio of 1.2% (based on UK study) and mean time from onset to death of 20 days (based on China data) the amount of active cases must have been 29.7K on March 5th. ((713/2)/0.012) The reported active cases were 3.3K on March 5th.
That's 8 out of 9 cases going undetected (on March 5th), some spreading the virus on wards.
Better more widespread testing, more of the unseen cases get detected, messing up the numbers, making it hard to find the turning point in the data. In China it still took 20 days for the daily deceased count to significantly go down after reaching a plateau in daily detected cases. But it also showed that at least it stopped climbing 8 days after the growth factor went below 1.0. If March 21st was indeed the turning point for Italy, in 3 days the daily deaths should stabilize and not go up anymore.
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