| crissindahouse said: You could also just use numbers from single regions of countries like Italy because you can't just say Norway is a better representation as Italy because of a higher percentage of testing when different regions test differently. Italy tested over 80k people in the Lombardy which has 10m people. Of those 80k tested, you have around 4,5k deaths and like 33k positive cases. Lombardy has around as many people as Norway with the same amount of tests and you have like a 30x higher death rate. Italy might be a very negative scenario but Norway is at least right now a very positive one. But the death rate will increase there as well like it also did everywhere else. That's sadly the truth like we also see in countries like Germany now (which does still look good compared to many others) |
I've been analyzing the data for a while now and what stands out is that the time from where detected cases first start to climb (accelerate) to where the death rate slowly starts to climb is on average 12 days. France only took 9 days, while Germany took 15 days. Italy started seeing deaths a lot sooner but the early data is clearly lacking there. A quick look at Norway shows that the ball started rolling there around March 4th. The mean time from onset of symptoms to death is 20 days. Norway is definitely not a better representation since it's only 21 days since cases started getting detected on a regular basis.
