haxxiy said:
Well, even if it were to spread uncontrolled over the course of about two months, the estimated peak would be less than 10% of total number of infections ocurring at the same time. So, that's more like 30,000 hospital beds needed, rather than 300,000. And that's assuming the sample is statistically relevant and requirements for hospitalization remain more or less the same as they are now. @JRPGfan - Italy only tests high risk persons since February 27. They estimate there are some ten other cases for every one they are diagnosing. Same thing happened in Wuhan: 86% of estimated undiagnosed cases. When we'll be sure? Only when we're able to test a statistically significant sample of the population for Covid-19 antigens. That's why estimating from a 2.5% death rate, or any other death rate one might choose, for 70% of the US population seems disingenuous. Even if 70% of the population were to get it, the number of diagnosed cases would be off by an order of magnitude or more. Specially if the elderly remain in isolation and it disproportionally targets younger, mostly assymptomatic people, as it would be the case with vertical isolation. |
The people that need hospital care can be in there for weeks:
Of 138 hospitalized patients from January 1 to January 28, 2020; final date of follow-up was February 3, 2020. The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0).
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
A shame there is no follow up of what happened to the remaining 85 patients. Your active cases keep piling up in the health care system. The recovery time works against you.
86% of undiagnosed cases, where do you get that from?
The Diamond Princess suggests 46% of people infected that show no symptoms (331 of 712)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099517/japan-coronavirus-patients-diamond-princess/
But the median age aboard a cruise ship is likely higher.
15 are still hospitalized btw and another 115 still quarantined.
The fact remains that cases that require hospitalization will climb much faster and higher than our healthcare system can cope with. Italy is enough proof of that, no matter how many undiagnosed cases there are.
