| SvennoJ said:
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Well, even if it were to spread uncontrolled over the course of about two months, the estimated peak would be less than 10% of total number of infections ocurring at the same time. So, that's more like 30,000 hospital beds needed, rather than 300,000. And that's assuming the sample is statistically relevant and requirements for hospitalization remain more or less the same as they are now.
@JRPGfan - Italy only tests high risk persons since February 27. They estimate there are some ten other cases for every one they are diagnosing. Same thing happened in Wuhan: 86% of estimated undiagnosed cases. When we'll be sure? Only when we're able to test a statistically significant sample of the population for Covid-19 antigens.
That's why estimating from a 2.5% death rate, or any other death rate one might choose, for 70% of the US population seems disingenuous. Even if 70% of the population were to get it, the number of diagnosed cases would be off by an order of magnitude or more. Specially if the elderly remain in isolation and it disproportionally targets younger, mostly assymptomatic people, as it would be the case with vertical isolation.
