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Marth said:
1. Animal Crossing is very likely the biggest opening ever for a game in Japan.
Current record holder is Pokemon Black&White at 2.637M
New Horizons needs a digital share of only 29% to beat that.

2. Switch hardware week is the biggest ever in Japan, even bigger than launch

3. This huge hardware week also boosts Switch hardware total over Wii LTD numbers.

I think your math is off, the digital share would need to be around 42% to match 2.637 million. 29% would only read 2.425 million.