Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[COKTOE]

SpokenTruth said:

The CDC estimates that between 12,000 and 60,000 people die from the seasonal flu each year in the US. Many people are still saying we are over-reacting to Covid-19 and that the Flu is much worse.

I just crunched some numbers to come up with the following potential death tolls for comparison.

Best case: 3 months of shelter-in-place with a 4% infection rate and a 2.5% death rate - 218,000 to 330,000 dead.

Worst case: 3 months of social distancing with a 70% infection rate and a 2.5% death rate - 4,895,000 to 5,775,000 dead.

Naturally the infection rate and death rate are the key factors here.  You can already see a vast range between 218,000 on the low and 5,775,000 on the high.

World:
Best case - 7,700,000 (Still one of the worst pandemics in world history).
Worst case - 134,750,000 (The worst single year pandemic in history).

And this is only the first wave. If we have another 3 wave epidemic like the Spanish Flu of 1918....
Wave 1 - x
Wave 2 - 5x
Wave 3 - 2x

If we get lucky and develop a vaccine, slow the infection rate, increase medical capacity, etc...we could see far lower numbers. But a few things are certain.  This damn sure isn't like the regular seasonal flu and going back to business as usual too soon would be catastrophic.

So you don't think Trump pushing forward with his well thought-out April 24 Easter deadline will help the world by saving America?

Ooooooo! Some hero needs to blow his f***ing brains out.