| Naum said: Sadly another 743 deaths in Italy the last 24 hours. |
This will unfortunately still go on for a while.
Comparing China to Italy (at least from what we know)
Januari 23rd China went into lock down.
The thick red line is the avg daily increase in cases (on a logarithmic scale) which started to go down around Februari 5th. (Then a big spike from adjustments)
The thin red line is the avg daily death count which didn't really start to go down until Februari 24th. A month after lock down, 19 days after the growth reversed.
Lombardy went into lock down on March 8th, the rest of the country March 9th.
March 21st seems to have been the turning point, 13 days after lock down, same as in China.
The active cases still kept piling up until Februari 17th in China, 12 days after the growth reversed.
If Italy follows the same pattern, active case load will keep climbing until April 3rd and the deaths won't come down much until April 10th :(
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