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SvennoJ on 22 March 2020
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JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:

Just a side note, the reporting has changed (cut off time I'm guessing) which put 2700 cases that were previously listed with the day before in with today.

Mar 18 2848
Mar 19 4530
Mar 20 5594
Mar 21 4824 + 2656 = 7480
Mar 22 13958 - 2656 = 11302

So still following an aggressive 1.4 avg daily growth rate, even 1.5 for today after adjustments. We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet, but we are seeing the full effects currently of serious testing having gotten up to speed. Playing catch up with the actual numbers. The actual growth rate should be a lot lower, although spring break won't be helping things. The effects of that are still to come.

That explains some of why it was such a big update.

"We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet, but we are seeing the full effects currently of serious testing having gotten up to speed. Playing catch up with the actual numbers." - SvennoJ

Most places (exsample: New York) its only testing those with serious symptoms.
So your not getting anywhere near "playing catch up with actual numbers".

Theres like 8 people with the illness that dont have serious symptoms, to the 2 that have, out of 10 people.
If your mainly testing the 2 outta 10, your numbers are ofc going to be way off.

Its like this in most western countries.


"We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet"  - SvennoJ

With a upto 12 day incubation time.
You wont see ANY real effects of a "lock down" until earliest 12days lateron.
Those newly confirmed cases will keep riseing at current projected speeds, because people are already infected, just not yet sick from it.

Also how effective it is, after that, depends on how well people are actually following the "social distanceing" thingy asked of the people under lockdown. Which sadly alot of people arnt.

We're not seeing all cases yet, but what I meant is that reporting has vastly increased skewing the actual growth rate. Especially with the current selective testing, confirmation testing rather than investigative.

When you take Mar 20 as a starting point, this is what it looks like for the coming couple days with different growth rates

                   1.4x         1.3x          1.2x      1.16x
Mar 20 19383   19383   19383   19383
Mar 21 27215   26655   26096   25872
Mar 22 38179   36109   35762   33399
Mar 23 53529   48399   47362   42131
Mar 24 75019   64376   61282   52260
Mar 25 105105 85146   77986   64009
Mar 26 147225 112147 98030   77638
Mar 27 206193 147248 122083 93448

The global average was 1.17 for the past 7 days, while the R0 and mean incubation time translate to an estimated growth factor of 1.16 (of course those are estimates as well)

It's very difficult to tell where it will land. Indeed 8 out of 10 with mild symptoms are likely not even tested atm. The base number (currently infected) is likely far higher. However due to the nature of exponential growth it doesn't matter all that much in the long run how far the base number was off. What does matter is the actual daily increase which is pretty hard to tell atm.