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JRPGfan on 22 March 2020
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SvennoJ said:
JRPGfan said:

Amercia just gave a update to new cases.... +13,957 new confirmed cases.
The US is now at 38,164 confirmed.

Good thing some states have started a lock down now, otherwise the weeks too come would be mad numbers.

Just a side note, the reporting has changed (cut off time I'm guessing) which put 2700 cases that were previously listed with the day before in with today.

Mar 18 2848
Mar 19 4530
Mar 20 5594
Mar 21 4824 + 2656 = 7480
Mar 22 13958 - 2656 = 11302

So still following an aggressive 1.4 avg daily growth rate, even 1.5 for today after adjustments. We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet, but we are seeing the full effects currently of serious testing having gotten up to speed. Playing catch up with the actual numbers. The actual growth rate should be a lot lower, although spring break won't be helping things. The effects of that are still to come.

That explains some of why it was such a big update.

"We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet, but we are seeing the full effects currently of serious testing having gotten up to speed. Playing catch up with the actual numbers." - SvennoJ

Most places (exsample: New York) its only testing those with serious symptoms.
So your not getting anywhere near "playing catch up with actual numbers".

Theres like 8 people with the illness that dont have serious symptoms, to the 2 that have, out of 10 people.
If your mainly testing the 2 outta 10, your numbers are ofc going to be way off.

Its like this in most western countries.


"We're probably not seeing the effects of any measure yet"  - SvennoJ

With a upto 12 day incubation time.
You wont see ANY real effects of a "lock down" until earliest 12days lateron.
Those newly confirmed cases will keep riseing at current projected speeds, because people are already infected, just not yet sick from it.

Also how effective it is, after that, depends on how well people are actually following the "social distanceing" thingy asked of the people under lockdown. Which sadly alot of people arnt.