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JRPGfan on 21 March 2020
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SvennoJ said:
Snoopy said:

Most people who get the flu won't need a sick bed or a respirator. Only people who needs it will be the elderly or people with weak immune system. I actually got the flu earlier this year and I just stayed home for about a week and I was fine just like most people.  Also, most people who are dying are the elderly and infants who should stay home like I said before.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/lower-coronavirus-death-rate-estimates/

Here we go again, it's not comparable to the flu. Yes, people under 50 are less likely to die, people under 30 even less than that. People over 40 still have a 5% chance to end up in the hospital with serious symptoms. Some of those ending up in the hospital require the ICU and can spend a weeks on a ventilator under close observation, some needing an ecmo machine when the lungs can't absorb any oxygen anymore. Plus all those with serious symptoms end up with lung scar tissue effecting the rest of their lives.


Modern healthcare can keep these groups alive and get them through it to get recovered in a month (with lung scar tissue effecting the rest of their lives) To stay with the UK example, the UK has roughly 4000 ICU beds, 150K total hospital beds, most occupied for regular needs.

0 to 9 -> 3.8 million people, 70% infected 2.66 million, 2.6K in the hospital, 53 in ICU (50 dead)
10 to 19 -> 3.7 million people, 70% infected 2.59 million, 7.8K in the hospital, 388 in ICU (155 dead)
20 to 29 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 37K in the hospital, 1800 in ICU (924 dead)
30 to 39 -> 4.6 million people, 70% infected 3.22 million, 103K in the hospital, 5150 in ICU (2570 dead)
40 to 49 -> 4.4 million people, 70% infected 3.08 million, 151K in the hospital, 9500 in ICU (4620 dead)
50 to 59 -> 4.7 million people, 70% infected 3.29 million, 336K in the hospital, 40940 in ICU (19714 dead)
60 to 69 -> 3.4 million people, 70% infected 2.38 million, 395K in the hospital, 108250 in ICU (52360 dead)

There's your kids and workforce. Quarantine everyone over 35 and take the 'minor' losses?
The other 30% gets infected eventually as well but any 70% as peak load is about the estimate when you let things run free.

^ thats "only" 80,400 deaths in the UK (if I did the maths right on your numbers).

*if* you had over 1million sick beds in hopsitals, and the staff, to take care of these people (with the virus).
*if* you had enough ventilators, to keep those that need it, on such.

I think if spread gets that crazy (70%) then these Infection Fatality Rates, go atleast up by a factor of 10 or something.

The "cynical" who are okay with such, might rationalise it with saying.... thats perphaps only 800,000 deaths out of a population of 66,44 million.
UK will go on, the world will keep spinning, who cares as long as I myself live.