SvennoJ on 19 March 2020
| John2290 said: The dearh rate in closed cases in 10% double what it was last week. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ |
Dying happens a lot sooner than recovery. With the case load growing exponentially (and thus deaths as well) it's normal for the death rate in closed cases to grow. Recoveries won't catch up until several weeks after the growth rate falls below 1.0. It's over 6 weeks after quarantine started on the Diamond princess and 25% of cases still don't have an outcome.
However deaths / total cases is also lagging behind while the growth is still positive. But heavily depends on actually detecting all new cases.
Then the death rate is heavily skewed as well by the age distribution of those that get infected. Italy already has the same amount of deaths as China with half the detected cases. (Or will, I expect Italy to overtake China today :/)
