| jason1637 said: I suggest everyone takes a look at this a lot of valuable information that many countries like the US are using for their response. I found one bit really intriguing. The report says that with strict restrictions it should begin to peak in 3 weeks and in July the strict restrictions can be lifted for a month but need to be re implemented for 2 months and lifted for a month and implemented for 2 months again until a vaccine is widely available by years end or early 2021. |
Interesting study, any mitigation scenario is doomed to fail:
However,this “optimal” mitigation scenario would still result in an 8-fold higher peak demand on critical care beds over and above the available surge capacity in both GB and the US.
Which it says is case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing of those most at risk (the over 70s).
To prevent healthcare system collapse:
Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required(Figure 3, Table 4). Measures are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration. Not accounting for the potential adverse effect on ICU capacity due to absenteeism, school and university closure is predicted to be more effective in achieving suppression than household quarantine. All four interventions combined are predicted to have the largest effect on transmission (Table 4).
Is there no way to coordinate this globally to stop this virus, or after stomping it out in one country, check everything/everyone coming in to stop it from flaring up again. Faster, better tests could be a way out as well, next to a vaccine or medication.
I guess we'll know in a month if it flares up again in China :/
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