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SvennoJ on 15 March 2020
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NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:

That 7.9 million people need hospitalization estimate was from the UK, but reported by The Guardian, which is indeed fever swamp.

However more conservative estimates, 40% infected at peak, 5% need ICU, 1.32 million need to be hospitalized in the UK. There are 167K hospital beds in the UK. So any peak can not be more than 5% of the population, and then you still have to convert all those hospital beds into ICU beds with ventilators. Plus it takes 2 to 4 weeks to recover when you need to get into the ICU. And of course those 167K beds aren't just available.

Maximum effort on containment is key while producing more equipment, build more hospitals, research medication and a vaccine.

40% infected at peak is not a conservative estimate.  And, regardless, it doesn't address that it's not what the UK government wants to happen.

The 5% was, Italy says it's 10% that needs ICU :/ It all depends on how many unreported mild cases there are of course.

With 4,000 ICU beds, active (detected/reported) cases need to say under 40k... It's a hard goal, let's keep it under.