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| Torillian said: Our local public schools in Ann Arbor Michigan have closed for the next three weeks and the university has switched to online courses for the rest of the semester. We've only had two cases in the state so I'm surprised the public schools acted so quickly, I was expecting them to wait it out another week. Someday I'd be really interested to talk to an expert on this particular virus and find out what about it made everyone take action so drastically. This is a much more notable reaction than I think the world has ever had for a single disease. Perhaps that's just because we have so much more information than we've ever had before, travel is easier than ever, or is this specific virus so much worse than Ebola or previous SARS strains that it required this level of response even if all other things were equal. |
It's the smart thing to do looking at how fast it got out of hand in Italy. With the long incubation period, initial mild flu like symptoms and average 1.2x daily growth rate of cases, by the time you detect the first cases (sick enough to go in) there could be many more already. Then a week later all those yet undetected cases have quadrupled already.
Say the first 2 cases detected are the tip of the iceberg, sick enough to go in after a week. Suppose there were already 10 cases at that time. That would mean 40 undetected cases and potentially another 160 a week later. (Added together close to 300 active cases) That's excluding more cases coming back home from other places.
What makes it dangerous is people with mild symptoms spreading the virus on without knowing it.
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