Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

John2290 said:

haxxiy said:

It's difficult to gauge, since few economic studies have concerned themselves with it.

But I've found one mentioning that a disease like the 1957 Flu would reduce world GDP by 2%, and one like the Spanish Flu by 4.8%. The 2009 Flu cost 0.3%.

I think that makes around 2% a reasonable estimate. I'm suspecting most of the damage will come from the quarantines rather than work hours lost.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-reutersmagazine-davos-flu-economy-idUSBRE90K0F820130121

Thank you, I can't find anything that isn't from mainstream scoruces. I have a feeling Google are scrubbing searches related to the virus and the economy. Reuters is one of the good ones, I'll give it a look. 

Edit: Read it. Pardon my rough math but this could impact in the Trillions so if it doesn't reach breaking point?

Yes, 2% of the world's GDP is already around $1.6 trillion I believe.

Of course, if you take into account stocks and bonds being wiped out, this number would be substantially larger.