Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

NightlyPoe said:

haxxiy said:

Not necessarily, but 90% could have been in the last seven days, and anything before lost in the vague ocean of "respiratory illness". People aren't usually tested for viruses when they die from these, and secondary pneumonia from Covid-19 can easily outlast the viral infection.

You're still talking about tens of thousands that would currently be in the active phase of the infection.  We'd notice that.  Especially since such a breakout would happen in clusters.  Parts of Ohio would already be in crisis.

Besides, the person who made the claim also said it would double every 6 days.  Your estimate of it shooting up 10x in a week would fix the number at double every two days or so.

Using this person's estimate, at least 50,000 would have gotten the virus more than six days ago.  And 25,000 would have been infected back in February.

It might seem a lot, but my estimate is consistent with the viral reproduction index and a putative patient zero in late January. He doesn't have to be right on his other estimates for the initial point to be valid.

Also, active phase of the infection could be literally less than a cold or two days of cough for a lot of people (and that we know for a fact). When was the last time you've been to a hospital because of either?

Of course, I'm not defending the estimate is bang on in the money, just showing a potential lane of how this could behave and how difficult it is for healthcare systems to cope and quantify it, which leaves us with statistical models to gauge the spread of most diseases, not clinical tests.