Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Lafiel]

Amnesia said:

John2290 said:

People havn't had time to recover so 6% is not accurate nor is 3.4% hence why they are going with the 1% estimate as the rate will drop and fall depending. The true number won't reveal itself until everyone recovers or dies. It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%.

Edit. And Italy has a much older population who are at more risk of fatality, as to why it is so skewed right now. It'll come down as the quarantine starts to catch up. 

It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%.

It is actually not at all that, based on 72000 closed cases, which is a fucking huge sample to have stable statistics. 1 to 3,4% is an utopia which has no serious explanation, just an anti panic number. 6,06% is what reality has shown after 2 months, having 500.000 or 72.000 cases won't change a lot this result, it is actually getting to be worse now that young asian population are almost done with it. We had a bottom value at 5,64% on March 7th, and now it is increasing every days.

.. that's not how statistics work

72k is only "a good sample size" if the sample is unbiased, which yours isn't! It contains the major fallout area Hubei, where the hospital system was overwhelmed and dozens of mild cases were simply sent home and didn't make it into the statistics.

Italy also doesn't really track mild cases anymore..