Amnesia said:
It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%. It is actually not at all that, based on 72000 closed cases, which is a fucking huge sample to have stable statistics. 1 to 3,4% is an utopia which has no serious explanation, just an anti panic number. 6,06% is what reality has shown after 2 months, having 500.000 or 72.000 cases won't change a lot this result, it is actually getting to be worse now that young asian population are almost done with it. We had a bottom value at 5,64% on March 7th, and now it is increasing every days. |
You are under the false impression everyone who gets it has been being tested and confirmed as a case. Any epidemiologist would tell you that simply doesn't happen, even for the more severe diseases. With Covid-19 some studies have estimated as many as 90% undetected in China, given transmission rates and dissemination patterns. A lot of people have no symptoms at all, a lot have less than a cold, some cough for just two days and that's it. That sample means as much as the 100,000 confirmed cases of H1N1 in the US in 2009 with 4% of deaths.
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