John2290 said:
People havn't had time to recover so 6% is not accurate nor is 3.4% hence why they are going with the 1% estimate as the rate will drop and fall depending. The true number won't reveal itself until everyone recovers or dies. It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%. Edit. And Italy has a much older population who are at more risk of fatality, as to why it is so skewed right now. It'll come down as the quarantine starts to catch up. |
It's likely to be between thst 1% and 3.4%.
It is actually not at all that, based on 72000 closed cases, which is a fucking huge sample to have stable statistics. 1 to 3,4% is an utopia which has no serious explanation, just an anti panic number. 6,06% is what reality has shown after 2 months, having 500.000 or 72.000 cases won't change a lot this result, it is actually getting to be worse now that young asian population are almost done with it. We had a bottom value at 5,64% on March 7th, and now it is increasing every days.