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SvennoJ on 09 March 2020
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NightlyPoe said:
SvennoJ said:

Sorry, I did add that later. I'm not sure what we're arguing about btw. From what I've read, heard the experts say and see in the data, I expect the threat to last for the rest of the year if not beyond that. I don't think this will go away or suddenly change into something less harmful. Not every area will be hit, but any area can be hit with an outbreak. It all depends on our own actions and those from the ones around us.

If you know something why this would go away, please share :)

It's an evolving disease.  It would hardly be unprecedented if less deadly strains became more prevalent as the deadlier strains die out due to either killing its host or being so conspicuous that the host is put into quarantine early.  Will that happen?  I don't know.

Let me point out my own view on the subject.  I live in a hurricane zone.  I've probably put up my shutters a dozen times in the past 20 years.  I've only been hit directly by a hurricane 1.5 times.  But that's doesn't mean I don't prepare.  That I don't get my hurricane supplies, gas up my car, make sure the windows are protected, and leave work with all the electronics unplugged and covered.  It's possible to have a healthy respect for the worst-case scenario while acknowledging that it might not happen.  I treat every hurricane that has a chance to hit as a certainty* because, in the end, it only takes one to completely wreck you.

And that's how the CDC operates.  They treat the worst-case scenario as a certainty*, making sure the public is ready and prepped to mitigate the spread of the disease.  Not because they're absolutely sure that the worst will happen.  But because they're absolutely sure that the worst CAN happen.  And if it does, they need to be proactive to keep it from getting completely out of control.

*Huh, went a bit Batfleck there didn't I?

Understood. What I was getting at is that the threat won't go a way for a long time, just like Hurricanes won't stop happening.

Anyway, I'm keeping my eyes open for any local cases turning up.