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SvennoJ on 08 March 2020
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numberwang said:

After one month of media coverage we have learned some things:

  • The virus is rapidly declining in China with less than 20K active case remaining
  • The growth rate of death is linear not exponential
  • The growth rate of new infections is linear as well with the exception of Italy + Iran (a statistical phenomenon because they increased testing recently)
  • Germany reports no death and nearly no serious cases for some reason
  • Death rate is 1% on the cruise ship (best controlled data) with mostly older people
  • Death rate in Korea (best surveillance and data nation-wide) is 0.6% overall, mostly older + preconditioned patients
  • Regular flu season will come to an end soon and this might help with covid too

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The decline in China took extreme measures. That decline skewed the data for a while making the growth rate look linear rather than exponential. The cases outside China have been growing exponentially, as well as the deaths. The death rate on the cruise ship doesn't include those that have been repatriated and have died at home, besides that, 32 are still in serious / critical conditions and 444 active cases left. 245 have recovered so far.

Death rate lags behind, this disease can take weeks to kill people. Recovery rate lags further behind. Recoveries in China are responsible for making the daily growth in active cases look like linear growth. However active cases growth is accelerating as well again.

What I've learned so far, different countries, different test methods. Some don't test at all, some assume it could be covid-19 without actual confirmation, not all tests are fool proof, false positives and false negatives can skew the data.

However the more numbers, the closer the average comes to the actual data. And that's currently anywhere between 3.4% (deaths / total detected cases) and 6% (deaths / closed cases) without further data. And yep, there are more undetected cases, and there are over 6K fighting for their life atm out of 45K active cases, some of which will move on to critical and some will still die.

It's not going away or calming down on its own. I wonder how long still until airline traffic gets halted or you have to provide proof of negative test for covid 19 before boarding.