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I don't think it is as hard to find as you think.

Toys R Us has 40G's in stock, even the spiderman movie bundle.
Gamestop has 40G's and used 80's and you can preorder the 80G w/ MGS4 (ships 7/7, only a week).

Based on that ship date, I would guess we would have to wait two weeks to see if PS3 numbers jump up again to validate your theory.

Personally, I think it is back at normal sales of 170k-ish per week.