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SvennoJ on 05 March 2020
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John2290 said:
SvennoJ said:

Where did I say that was the death rate for the illness, that line was right under the chance (so far) of catching the illness (in Wuhan) and in the same post and earlier I said. People are very worried when they read 6% chance to die and talks of widespread pandemic.

Deaths / Total detected cases is currently 3.4% and 6.0% of closed cases.

The problem with all the speculations on death rate are that it entirely depends on how many undetected cases are floating around, who gets it and how well prepared hospitals are with beds and respirators. In China they even used Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation to keep people alive https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5239989/

Outside Wuhan the WHO found the death rate for the disease to be about 1%, with well prepared advanced hospital care. It will be a lot higher when advanced healthcare is not available or overburdened, hence the need to slow it down.


Today looks like the day active cases are starting to grow again (Newly infected - Recovered was going down since they started getting it under control in China, but it's now exploding in the rest of the world mostly from air travel connections) Governments are so slow to respond with only some countries getting a negative travel advisory. The problem is, as soon as its detected somewhere, it already had an avg of 9 days to develop and likely infect close contacts.

Half a million people will be entering the country here in two weeks for St patricks day. It's such bad timing but regardless, we have two different clusters now in Ireland from schools who returned from Italy. Containment has failed and the experts are changing their efforts to delaying it. It's sickly that the government want to just sweep it under the rug for the tourism money. We should have a travel ban for all unnecessary entries and the schools should be closed but so far only the two in whih the clusters are should with a warning for the infected to self isolate. The death will be on their hands. I don't know how they should be handling it but I'd much prefer them to react aggressively than doing barely anything at all. 

There are probably some coming from here as well, it's March break in 2 weeks... A lot of travel right as this thing is picking up steam.

So far this is it for Canadians:

The Government of Canada recommends that Canadians avoid non-essential travel to China and Iran due to an outbreak of COVID-19.

The government also recommends that Canadians avoid all travel to the province of Hubei due to very strict travel and movement restrictions imposed by Chinese authorities to limit the spread of COVID-19.

Bit lagging behind... 6k cases in South Korea, 3k in Italy, the rest of Europe is starting to accelerate, Japan is still increasing and it's popping up everywhere over the USA. Canada itself has cases in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. A cluster in Toronto can easily spread out with daily commutes. So far only 533 people have been tested here, still working on getting detection up to speed. Travelers are advised to monitor their health for 14 days after returning.

This minimal impact response isn't doing much. Meanwhile the schools still have random strikes (just saw one on the way to town) gathering in large groups, picketing, probably sharing hot drinks and snacks... That's not how school closures help lol.

Anyway despite now sitting at 35 cases, no problems here with the stores. I live in a small town though, no worries here. Even though some people that live here commute to Toronto daily.