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drkohler said:
What the hell has the chance of getting ill by a particular illness have to do with the death rate of said illness? |
Where did I say that was the death rate for the illness, that line was right under the chance (so far) of catching the illness (in Wuhan) and in the same post and earlier I said. People are very worried when they read 6% chance to die and talks of widespread pandemic.
Deaths / Total detected cases is currently 3.4% and 6.0% of closed cases.
The problem with all the speculations on death rate are that it entirely depends on how many undetected cases are floating around, who gets it and how well prepared hospitals are with beds and respirators. In China they even used Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation to keep people alive https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5239989/
Outside Wuhan the WHO found the death rate for the disease to be about 1%, with well prepared advanced hospital care. It will be a lot higher when advanced healthcare is not available or overburdened, hence the need to slow it down.
Today looks like the day active cases are starting to grow again (Newly infected - Recovered was going down since they started getting it under control in China, but it's now exploding in the rest of the world mostly from air travel connections) Governments are so slow to respond with only some countries getting a negative travel advisory. The problem is, as soon as its detected somewhere, it already had an avg of 9 days to develop and likely infect close contacts.
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