SpokenTruth said:
Good. That answers 1 of the 3 questions. Now, what was the previous death rate and what date did they provide that previous death rate? Without that context, it's hard to say it has been "updated to X%" Was it less? Was it higher? Was it the same? How long ago? What has changed since? Your reaction of "good lord" suggests it was increased from a lower number to a higher number but without a previous figure from the same source, we don't know that. And Dr. Ghebreyesus didn't say one way or the other in the story you linked. |
You could also look at it like this:
Wuhan is a city of 11.08 million.
86% of cases in China are linked back to Wuhan.
Active cases are now going down in China.
86% of 80,282 cases / 11.08 million = (so far) 0.62% infection rate (with symptoms, not all 11 million tested of course)
86% of 2981 deaths / 11.08 million = (so far) 0.023% death rate (still 27.2k active cases, 6.4K serious / critical)
But that only works if we can respond as fast and efficiently as the Chinese.
Testing is the problem, death rate in the USA is currently 7%
Deaths / Total detected cases is currently 3.4% and 6.0% of closed cases.
How many people will get infected is the question, and how many are actually infected with such mild symptoms they don't even know. Estimates ranged from 15% to 70% of the population getting infected at some point, 40% of China being infected by the end of May, however in Wuhan it's still under 1 percent and slowing down. The question is, can we in the West give up our mobility for a while to stamp this virus out.
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