haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:
If we just look at the stats for today (so far) 36 new deaths, 1716 new cases (Before China got added, this is all outside China)
That's 2.1%. The reported stats may be too low, however the deaths lag up to 3 weeks behind. 1% is certainly possible, but cnbc claiming 0.2% to 0.4%, nothing even suggests anything close to that.
A Harvard epidemiologist estimated it at 40% to 70% worldwide infection rate.
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/482794-officials-say-the-cdc-is-preparing-for
The USA is also more at risk since the CDC stated that among other things, those with diabetes (9.4% in USA), obesity (31%, 7.6% severe) and older people (25% over 60) are at high risk. (However the average age in the USA is actually not that high, Japan, Germany and Italy are at the top)
Luckily people won't all get it at the same time, but hospital stay can be long as well. Better slow it down while we can, spread it out as long as possible.
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Smoking probably affect the statistics a lot as well.
74% of male Chinese are smokers, compared to only 8% of women. No wonder, then, three times more men than women were dying there.
Edit - that also bodes ill for Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
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Still 40 million smokers in the US and 9 million vape regularly. Only 15%, much better nowadays. So I guess over 42% of people smoke in China (higher male population), that's a lot. Age seemed to be the biggest factor in the Chinese study, average age is a bit lower in China.
All I know for certain is, too late to close off entire cities and too many people commuting here to isolate the virus. Good news, the growth factor outside China seems to be going down a bit in the past few days, which could also mean that we can't keep up with testing and tracking down connections.
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