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SvennoJ on 29 February 2020
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useruserB said:
SvennoJ said:

Erm China is doing way more than the west is currently. The fact that it took from December until recently for it to escape, compared to how rapidly it's already spreading throughout the whole of Europe, the slow response of the rest of the world is what's sickening. Heck some of the people cleared to leave the Diamond Princess still turned out to have the virus.

Problem is, it's still largely unknown how the virus spreads exactly, incubation period can be 2 weeks with 3 weeks as an outlier and early symptoms look like a regular flu.

Shutting down entire cities and isolating entire regions is "no wanting to be the only country that takes a major L" ???

So far I see the 'west' still carrying on as normal. 2.7 million airline passengers daily, just monitor yourself for symptoms when you get back from a suspect area.


And yeah you're right, I made a comparison with the flu in another thread based on US stats

If Covid-19 gets to run lose like the flu:
Lower estimate: 40% of 327 million get sick, 130 million. 5% need hospital care (based on Diamond Princess) 6.5 million. 2% die, 2.6 million.
Upper estimate: 70% of 327 million get sick, 229 million, 10% need hospital care (based on China) 23 million, 3.4% die, 7.8 million.

2017-2018 Flu season (a peak year)
45 million got the flu 13.7%, 810k hospitalized 1.8%, 61K died 0.135%

Thus compared to flu, low estimate: 2.77x more severe disease rate, 15x higher death rate.
high estimate: 5.55x more severe disease rate, 25x higher death rate.

Plus the chance of catching it is also 3 to 5 times higher.

Yeah china is doing way more than anyone else, but only out of self-interest and to minimize further impact and spread to themselves. They didn't and still don't give a shit if it spreads worldwide. Pretty sure they consider worldwide spread more favorable/preferable to only domestic. They just realized they could no longer cover it up and had to take drastic action to stop it from spreading further into china. The entire time china was quarantining whole cities, they were demanding other countries leave their borders open to Chinese travelers. Countries like iran had no choice since china is basically one of their few allies. Look at the mess they're innow.

"In late December, several genomics companies tested samples from sick patients in Wuhan — the center of the coronavirus outbreak — and noticed alarming similarities between their illnesses and the 2002 SARS virus, the Sunday Times of London reported, citing Chinese business news site Caixin Global.

The researchers alerted Beijing of their findings — and on Jan. 3, received a gag order from China’s National Health Commission, with instructions to destroy the samples."

https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china-officials-knew-of-coronavirus-in-december-ordered-cover-up-report-says/

Sadly that's what countries do. Trump is downplaying the whole thing as well and under reporting the numbers (talking about 22 instead of 60 active cases) Meanwhile praising himself for closing the borders to China on Januari 31st, praising China for the numbers to be way down. He thinks the professionals have it all figured it out. Vaccine already figured out. It will be a smaller circumstance, ask the media to be careful, no reason to panic at all.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-gzon4Elqg
Do you trust him... Can't trust the others anymore either since they have effectively been gagged.

Mike Pence: Borders to Iran now have been closed, yet just an advisory for Americans not to travel to certain areas in Italy and South Korea. (Meanwhile it's in over 60 countries) We have more than 40 million masks available (not 100% effective btw) so far for health care providers. (who can still get sick with the standard 3M masks)

CDC: From day one, this is what we expected, the risk remains low (how different from before he got muzzled) We will see more cases, vast majority will have mild to moderate symptoms, simply stay at home when you feel sick. Lower the amount of travel to stricken areas.

Towards the end, they did find new cases without links. We will see more new cases in clusters, isolate, trace contacts. But it will continue to evolve. Risk to American public remains low, we anticipate new cases, but I state, the risk remains low.

Trump, we're doing such a good job.

CDC: I have not been muzzled, just need to clear what I say with Mike Pence. LOL


Anyway, in the world we live in, no country can truly isolate itself. America would grind to a halt without imports from China.


CDC: 75% to 80% will do quite well (bad flu or cold) 15% to 20% will go on to require advanced medical care. (That's higher than I thought) The elderly and those with underlying heart disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes and/or obesity are at risk. However everyone once in a while young healthy people will die as well.

Trump: Good news, Starbucks is open again in China and Apple is back to business... WTF lol.

No travel restrictions in the US, Americans, I re-iterate, are at low risk.

Mexico: Keeping the border open.
China: We're doing more trade deals, we're closer with China now.
Trump beating the drum, China won't overtake our economy, we'll refinance our debt at lower rates, etc etc.
The markets will come back, our consumers are in a great position, our professionals are doing a great job, the numbers are very strong.

Nothing about Canada (it's here as well). The risk is considered low here as well, still in containment phase and concerns are about protection of health care workers. However "Foreign Affairs Minister François-Philippe Champagne says there are no further plans to repatriate Canadians from countries affected by Covid-19. He's advising Canadians be vigilant when travelling internationally."


Oh well, it will come around sooner or later, it seems unstoppable since no country is prepared to actually close its borders and isolate until cleared. Even if you do that it would mean people running out of food and other things. 87k cases now, almost 3k dead. The decline in active cases is flattening out and will soon go up again now the cases in the rest of the world are growing exponentially.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#newly-infected-newly-recovered
Be prepared, hope for the best. Maybe a quick rise in temperature will slow it down. Global warming might save us yet!