| haxxiy said: In the US, it has been estimated, for a Spanish Flu-like scenario, that 33% of working age people getting a disease with 2.5% death rate and a three-week recovery time would mean an economic contraction of 5%. The 2009 recession contracted the global economy by 1% in comparison, so that's huge. Of course, the new Coronavirus isn't that bad, but still... in a global economy, we are talking about the risk of actual shortages of goods with a pandemic. Basically something like what preppers had predicted for the Brexit. |
Yeah, just like the healthcare system, most things are close to 100% efficiency with little overhead. Food gets dragged all over the world before it reaches your local store. It would be beneficial for local grown food, however here for example, Ontario depends on seasonal workers from Middle America for the harvest season. Travel restrictions will be hard on everything. Shortages of (some) goods can indeed easily happen.
I guess this will be a good wake up call to make the whole system more robust. 'Luckily' this virus is indeed not that bad. Most people will hardly be slowed down by it, but will still be worried sick over their family members.
Hmm it seems the statistics for the Diamond princess are getting lost in the rest. A lot of people have been flown back home and several have unfortunately died now (most recent one in Australia) yet they do not get counted towards the death toll for the Diamond princess. Actual death rate is still hard to tell.
