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SvennoJ on 29 February 2020
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haxxiy said:

I think the closest historical analogue to the new Coronavirus is the 1957 Flu pandemic, which also began in China and had an estimated death rate between 0.1% and 1.6%. Back then, we also didn't have antivirals against Influenza. It was a much younger population worldwide, mind, but potentially there were more smokers across Europe and specially the US.

Curiously, the same virus returned about a decade later as a milder strain of flu that also caused a pandemic.

Mind you, a pandemic with a PSI between 2 and 4 such as this can potentially kill 500,000 - 1,500,000 people in the US alone. That's almost a decade's worth of flu deaths. The economy... isn't probably going to like it.

Since it mostly affects older people (at least for deaths) pension plans are going to like it :/ Life insurance companies, not so much.

The economy is going to be effected by panic and travel restrictions. The tourist sector is going to hurt the most. However most people will be fine. Small companies will probably hurt more from (temporary) loss of employees, big companies shouldn't have much of a problem.

The bigger problem will be the strain on the healthcare system. Countries with free healthcare will feel the drain on their budgets while in a country like the USA you will probably have to file for bankruptcy after surviving 3 weeks on the ICU...