SpokenTruth said:
Dulfite said:
The outcome I see is they are mad either way. Only possfour outcomesible in my mind:
1) Sanders wins most delegates but then loses in second round of convention vote. Sanders voters are ticked and either don't vote at all in general election or vote third party to stick it to the moderate Democrats, costing them the election.
2) Sanders wins nomination, but because he is so far left there will be record low numbers of independents and moderate Republicans voting for the Democratic nominee, costing them the election plus losing probably 20-40 House seats and all competitiveness in close Senate races of swing States.
3) Sanders loses I'm first round and throws and doesn't really behind winner. Repeat results from option 1.
4) Sanders loses in outright and accepts it, endorses nominee, and campaigns for them. A moderate Democrats with the backing and campaigning of Sanders/Warren/Yang would probably beat Trump. This is the only option that could make them win 2020 down the ballot and the Presidency, but I also think it is the least likely to happen.
Either way, after 2016, of Sanders gets shafted again by superdelegates his supporters are going to lose their minds. May see the tea party of the left happen.
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I don't buy this narrative because it ignores the increase in new voters.
Nevada caucus turnout was way higher than the 2016 turnout by 25% (84,000 in 2016 vs nearly 105,000 in 2020).
Given that 45% of the voting age population didn't even vote in the general election of 2016, seems to me like it makes far more sense to target them than to appease a fractional slice of independents and moderate Republicans that might flip to Trump.
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Primary season always brings out the more extremes in the party, so just because there were more doesn't mean there will be more come general election. And if that is the case, then Trump will also be aided by that as he had extremely high turnout for an incumbant compared to Obama and Bush at least in Iowa (haven't checked NH or Nev yet).
Also, while Bernie appeals to typically non voting youths, he is very unappealing to typically voting elderly or middle aged people. So much so that that many of them will vote for third party, not at all, or Trump. If you go after one demographic you tend to alienate at least another one.
