Ashadelo said:
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Unfortunately you are probably very much correct. If you take the Diamond Princess' ratio of serious/critical vs number detected cases, and believe the reported serious/critical cases in China, then there are at least another 89 thousand so far undetected or under reported cases walking around in China. And even the Diamond Princess' tests turned out to be incorrect since several people that were cleared to leave still got sick later.
It's likely true for many places, tests are not fool proof and the incubation period can be as long as 3 weeks. The virus is probably spreading slower in China atm because of all the counter measures and as you said people are staying home. The rest of the world is still largely in denial and carrying on as usual. It might be very different in another week.
The press conference said a lot. Trump kept downplaying the risk and repeating we are fully prepared, we have the best people, we are on top of it, etc etc. While the experts were in between trying to warn people to start preparing for the coming wave.
Ah I see Canada has changed the low risk to a much more worrying message...
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/coronavirus-live-updates-who-covid19-covid-19-italy-china-canada-wuhan-deaths
"Stockpile food and meds in case of infection, Canada's health minister says 'It’s good to be prepared because things can change quickly,' Minister Patty Hajdu said"
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-iran-champagne-repatriation-1.5476434
Public health official says widespread transmission could mean 'social distancing' measures
And now it's about a 100km from where I live
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/coronavirus-iran-champagne-repatriation-1.5476434
"Public health investigators are tracing the steps of a woman who returned to Canada from Iran nine days before going to Sunnybrook hospital with emerging COVID-19 symptoms"
