| haxxiy said: During the SARS outbreak, there were a significant number of people who were never counted as "recovered" afterwards. I would imagine this number would be far higher for N-Covid considering a lot of milder cases are sent back home to self-quarantine and aren't likely to get tested again unless they need to go back to the hospitals for whatever reason. Back then in China, total number of cases stopped significantly climbing about 60 days after the beginning of the outbreak; deaths, about two weeks later or 74 days (not shown in graph but that was in the source); but recoveries took another whole month, 104 days, to be properly accounted for. As a consequence of this lag, the death rate continued to climb between day 60 and day 74 before dropping down again as the very late cases continued to recover.
Edit - also significant is looking at the Diamond Princess ship as a controlled environment for the virus without risks of underreporting etc. Mild + assymptomatic cases account for about 95% of all the confirmed infected there (considering 36 severe cases out of ~ 700). Of course, 50% of assymptomatics might be reassuring but is also worrying because of the implications for containment. |
The Diamond princess is a bit of a puzzle compared to active cases. If you carry the 36 severe out of 691 back over to the total statistics, then there are over 170K undetected infected walking around. Maybe the Diamond princess is lagging behind or something else is going on.
