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SvennoJ on 23 February 2020
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CrazyGamer2017 said:
SvennoJ said:
It sounds like you're the one that's panicking. The world will go on, life will go on. Indeed very likely not everyone will get infected when it spirals out of control and spreads like the flu, perhaps a way to combat the effects and increase survival rate will be found as well.

But things are serious when 20% of cases end up seriously ill to critical condition status.

The Diamond Princess is a good micro cosmos for any estimates on infection rate. It normally has 2670 passengers and 1100 crew. The first batch of 621 passengers have now been cleared, 691 confirmed infected, 17 recovered, 3 deaths so far and 36 serious/critical. Infection rate of just over 18% despite the efforts to contain spreading of the virus.

Of course not everywhere in the world has the same medical resources to care for the critical cases. That 2% figure is already too low and if nothing is found while the virus gets away, it will certainly go up. Not the end of the world, but it's right to take this seriously.

But if you want to go run around in the street naked, go for it.

Why would I panic when I'm the one saying things are NOT as bad as you say they are? And I never said this virus should not be taken seriously. But try to understand what I'm saying here. You are talking about 230 million people dead by the time this virus is done. This is a situation (if true) that would go way beyond anything we as a species have known in the past millennium at least if not more.

But like I said before, back in 2003 that other corona virus known as SARS did not kill 230 million people, it killed roughly 700 people and just like this present virus it was just as infectious and there was no drug to stop it. So if that virus did not kill 230 million people why would you think this virus could?

Look at your own figures. The Diamond Princess, out of 2670 passenger 3 ONLY are dead, China, out of 75k infected, less than 2500 are dead (about 3%) Italy 150 infected so far 3 are dead (about 2%) etc... I'm not saying this virus cannot get worse or mutate or even go above 3%, I'm only saying SO FAR it's never above 3% so my ONLY question here to you and others is, how do you guys go from this very real 3%, to a situation where 230 MILLION people die? That's the one thing I don't get. That's all I'm saying, nothing more.

And finally if you are right and we get an apocalypse where 230 million or more people die, don't tell me not to panic cause at that point, panic is totally warranted. I'm the one saying don't panic cause I don't think we'll get there but should you be right about so many dying, then I for one would be scared and I'm sure everybody else here would be too.

EDIT: Ok you added that 230 million people can potentially die, not die for sure. I hear you and I see what you mean, but do you really believe it could potentially go that far? Do you think there could be a scenario where that many people die with this virus? I hope not of course, but if yes, then we are in for a scary time, I'm sure we can all agree on that.

I didn't add that btw, that was quoted from my original reply to your

"What's to deal with? You most likely won't catch it, but even if you do, you have roughly a 98% chance of being ok and a 2% chance of dying. I don't understand why such low odds produce such a high media frenzy?"

The media frenzy for potential terrorists attacks is far worse while the chance of falling victim to one of those are extremely small. And look at the counter measures we have to live with for such a rare event! However a disease that could truly go viral, with a 1 in 5 chance of catching it, and then a 1 in 5 chance of needing hospitalization when you catch it, 1 in 25 people needing serious care, yeah that's serious.

As for the death rate, it's still uncertain. It's currently 3.1% of total discovered and confirmed cases (active cases plus closed cases) thus the lowest estimate. It's 9.5% of closed cases, the highest estimate. And that's before hospitals get overrun with cases...

So let's say the worst of the worst happens, 1 in 25 people end up needing serious care, roughly 300 million people needing to be hospitalized. When that happens the death rate will go up regardless since hospitals are already at their limits most of the year. So yep, I do think a scenario is possible where that many people can potentially die. Unless the government is hiding lots of spare hospitals and doctors somewhere.


I see the death rate for SARS was actually close to 10%, however it was contained to 8,098 cases. This virus is already close to 10 times that figure plus how many unknown cases might be there in China and other parts.


Exponential growth is a scary thing and it won't happen over night with an incubation period of 2 to 14 days while it seems the contagious stage is when the disease manifests itself. So we still have time to contain it. Early detection and quarantine should work.