| RolStoppable said: I've not ruled it out to begin with that Switch can outsell the DS and I have yet to see anything that points in the direction of it being impossible. Sales comparisons to previous Nintendo consoles usually forget to account for Switch being Nintendo's only console, so one key assumption that is commonly wrong is that Switch is bound to the same or similar sales trajectory. After three years of Switch it's already clear that the sales curves of most older Nintendo consoles have to be ruled out, so the only good dataset that is left to compare to is the one of the DS. How Switch can beat the DS is as simple as tossing the old rules for the length of a console lifecycle out of the window. When Sony and Microsoft began to run longer cycles than six years, everyone was fine with it. But apparently the thought that Nintendo can go seven, eight or even nine years is preposterous. However, what if Switch went for more than six years like Nintendo intends to and backs up with all of their actions so far? Then you have a realistic scenario where Switch begins to gain on the DS on the backend. Switch becoming a personal console will play a major role. Switch Lite is a step in the direction of one console per person, but its sales haven't been impressive so far. That isn't a surprise to me, because we are still years away from the point where the hybrid SKU reaches its saturation point; there's no big need for secondary and tertiary Switch units in households when there has yet to be the primary unit installed. Nevermind that the Lite sells at a premium price for a personal console at $199, so there are still a few demand levels to unlock below that price; after all, the 2DS hit sub-$100 with a game included eventually, although it's not that good of a comparison because the 2DS had a shape that was widely undesirable which in turn limited its sales potential. Switch has sold ~49m by the end of 2019, add another three years of ~20m per year and the total is already at ~110m. That would be too low to beat the DS, but only if Switch's lifecycle is tied to historical rules. Should Switch get seven or eight years, the likelihood to outsell the DS becomes a lot more manageable. There's post-successor support too, just like the 3DS received first party games into early 2019 because Nintendo had to cover the lower price brackets in the console market, something that the $300 Switch couldn't do, just like the Switch successor won't be able to either. So ~10 years of first party support or close to it should be expected for Switch. In any case, those people who keep comparing Switch, Nintendo's only console, to previous console lifecycles where Nintendo always had to support two consoles concurrently will be proven wrong time and time again. Because now we are approaching the time where many previous Nintendo consoles had declining sales because Nintendo's top development teams had to focus on a different console, whereas Switch continues to receive the attention of all the top teams. This means that Nintendo will continue to release multiple blockbusters each and every year, and it doesn't need to be explained that Nintendo software sells Nintendo hardware. |
You honestly believe the switch will be selling 20 million after 5 years? Sure it can happen this year but after that it will drop in sales a lot. Are you forgetting the DS sold 155 million? You think its possible for the switch to sell another 103 million in the next 4 years? When most fans already bought one? And when the next big thing now is the new consoles? The reason the switch is outselling the ps4 is because people are waiting for the ps5, so most people who wanted one already got it, and the rest will not invest in a device that will become outdated in 9 months time.
Most surprisingly I find it unbelievable that someone thinks Nintendo wont release a new console in the next 4 years, making the switch sales drop real hard.
I really want Nintendo to succeed, I'm the only person I know of that has bought all Nintendo consoles, NES, SNES, N64, gamecube, Wii, WIIU and Switch and GB, GB advance, DS, 3DS, new 3DS XL so I really love Nintendo but I am realistic.
