When will the switch outsell the ps4?

[Bofferbrauer2]

trunkswd said:

ArchangelMadzz said:

I meant average it, still to expect such a massive spike in it's 4th year is pretty optimistic.

Switch Sold 19.5m units last year. That would be an increase of 33% between the 3rd and 4th year. a Comparison of growth between 3rd to 4th year below:

PS4: +12.5%
Wii: -20%
PS3: +7%
360: -7.5%
DS: +0.5%
XB1:-9.5%
WiiU:-300%
Vita:-6%

Out of all these Handheld and Home consoles (that we have the data of), only the PS4 managed double digit growth from 3rd year to 4th year. It seems extrodinarily unlikely that the Switch's growth will be 3x that amount.

Not saying it's impossible, but very optimistic at the least. 

(I agree this year will be NS's peak year but I think 23m is optimistic enough) 

I agree here. Switch sales in 2020 will be +/- 10% of 2019 sales. Unless there is a price drop, which is unlikely knowing Nintendo. 

While I'm not expecting a pricedrop, I do expect them including a pack-in game to become standard in Fall, which would be similar to a $50 pricecut for anyone who also wants that game - though for which game this will be, I don't know yet.