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HoangNhatAnh said:
DonFerrari said:

Probably around 40M or so. Your point?

You know that based on what? Top selling of 1st party games on ps4 aren't more than 16 million so far. Not to mention all of them get sale just after a few month, and after a full year, maybe you can get it for free.

According to NPD, from 2013 to 2016 only one time PlayStation 4 exclusive managed to chart in the top 20 best selling games of the year! Uncharted at no.12 in 2016(Physical+Digital sales). 
By the end of 2016, PS4 has sold more than 54M units of hardware.

Meanwhile, Nintendo Switch exclusive managed to chart 14 times from 2017-2019 in the top 20 best selling games of the year without digital sales! By the end of 2019, Nintendo Switch has sold more than 52M units of hardware.

Mario Kart 8 - 3 times(10,12,10)
Zelda BOTW - 2 times(5,18)
Super Mario Odyssey - 2 times(9,15)
Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 2 times(5,7)
Pokemon Let's Go Pikachu - 1 time(20)
Pokemon Sword - 1 time(16)
Luigi's Mansion 3 - 1 time(18)
NSMBUD - 1 time(20)
Super Mario Party - 1 time(19)

My prediction for 1st party only sony console is around PS Vita numbers or worse.