zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:
18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.
Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.
People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.
So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.
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colafitte said:
Not even close to 1:1, and no, i was not comparing shipped vs sold through. I said that Lite shipped 5M, so it should have sold to consumers, what?, 3M?, 4M? that means 15-16M units sold of regular Switch. Without Lite, how much more could have sold at 300$??, 2M-3M more??..., So yeah, there you have it, "fighting" to reach 18M units sold to consumers like i said....
PS4 2016 was kind of disappointing yes, but you're comparing a console 100$ more expensive against one 100$ cheaper, and PS4 Pro did not shipped 5M in 2016 like Switch Lite did in 2019. So yeah...., both were kind of disappointing but i feel Switch in 2019 has been more disapponting that PS4 in 2016, because how many people did expect around 19M in 2019 in the end???, Come on people, don't act as this is not a surprising (disappointing) number....
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Hmm, it's literally what you expected but now it's all of a sudden a disappointment......
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Thank you for the reminder..., but that was when??, in January 2019??? (and i always said that i made my predictions based on official announcments, so i didn't count then any price cuts of revisions), When the FY ended and started this new one, i said then that i was surprised about Switch performance and that Switch was doing better than i expected. That feeling lasted from March to October and November, the moment when i definitively made my prediction about Switch doing 20-20'5M units sold to consumers after Lite was announced.
The disappointment comes after knowing Normal Switch was 20% up YOY compared to 2018 during first half of 2019 before Lite was announced and that it would probably only sold around 10% more in the end (if Lite didn't existed and the 18M would become true).
What that post proves is that i was better at predicting at the end of 2018 and start of 2019 than i was months later or right now....
. I need to stick more to my instincts it seems....
Last edited by colafitte - on 04 February 2020
