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Amnesia on 30 January 2020
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Nu-13 said:
Amnesia said:

I am not sure Nintendo has to justify themself about adjusting stock or not. If UK was severly under supplied, I would expect other country to be just fine without too much stock overall. I had a different theory not mentioned here :

If they had announced 20 or 20.5, what would have been then the FY2021 forecast ?...This would have not allowed them a lot of margin, they would have announced more ?... Or a bit less ? admitting that FY2021 would be the decline year of the Switch ? Starting from 19,5M, they can then announce a safe 20M to show that they still forecast progression for the switch. Capitalism is just about "always more, more and MORE..."

Once Nintendo announces a weaker forecast on year N compared to year N-1, the stock could collapse quickly.

You keep acting like those numbers are hard to achieve when they are actually too low compared to what the switch will sell.

No I just try to bring the view as (very small) investor. The thing with the forecast is not to predict the reality but to impress investors to attract more cash. If they would announce 20 today, it would make them in a delicate position to announce a risky 21. No one can predict what impact will have the PS5 and series X, the only one similar example of under-powered console fighting against bruteforce consoles is the Wii against the 360 and PS3, and we have seen the collapse of the sales. I see people believing into a "counter offensive of power" with the Switch Pro...This is ridiculous, at best this new version will just reduce a little bit the huge gap with the base XBOX1...I think they can't hold on then after winter 2020-2021. So they won't sell 23 and then 25 M on the 2 following fiscal years.